Germany is moving towards legalizing recreational cannabis

This tripartite coalition, originally, puts forward solid arguments to justify its approach: to prevent poor quality and dangerous substances from circulating and a resolute desire to protect youth. Another advantage put forward by the ruling coalition: the predictable increase in tax revenues for the state, which the team of economist Justus Haucap estimates at more than 2 billion euros in a study commissioned by the German Hemp Association, which has just been published.

According to Justus Haucap, the tax solely on cannabis would generate 1.8 billion euros for the state. To this, professional taxes, corporate/wage tax, and VAT would have to be added to obtain precise forecasts. The total operation: 2.9 billion euros.

That's not all. In reality, the final calculation gives a result of 5 billion euros per year. How is this explained? The economist also includes one billion euros in savings from police and justice budgets. This remains theoretical but is easily conceivable: the hypothesis is that criminality will decrease because the legal market is intended to drain the black market. This comes with a condition to meet these forecasts: the study recommends selling cannabis at about 10 euros per gram.

Additional clarification from Justus Haucap: "These figures are entirely comparable to those calculated for France by the Council of Economic Analysis in 2019," he states. "We therefore believe that this would be a good deal for both countries! It would create 27,000 jobs in Germany. It would also reduce healthcare costs, as consumers would buy quality products."

Another observation in countries where cannabis is legalized: among consumers considered "problematic," such as adolescents, consumption remains the same. Meaning it does not increase. A positive and even "very encouraging" piece of news.

However, the German political class remains divided. Despite all these structured and acceptable arguments, there is no consensus at present within the Bundesrat, the equivalent of the Senate in France. The project will have to be reworked if the coalition hopes to convince by this summer.

The legalization of recreational cannabis divides at the highest level

Stephan Pilsinger, CDU spokesperson for the fight against drugs, is one of the coalition's opponents who will need convincing. According to him, the coalition is conducting an "experiment on the health of our society and our youth." "Should the state really earn money by plunging its citizens into the danger of addiction, permanent psychoses, and physical and mental suffering? I think that's immoral," he said to Agence France-Presse.

Police unions are also among the skeptics. They fear a "normalization of cannabis use," while others see the specter of increased organized crime.

Jörg Radek is the vice-president of the German police union GdP. For him, caution is in order: "The political intention is to possibly add a third drug, cannabis, to already legalized drugs like nicotine and alcohol. As a police officer, I have doubts about this, because it will also change society in terms of interaction with others. But also for us, in the police, because it will certainly give us more work."

On the health side, addiction specialists have also expressed reservations about the potential impact on the mental health of young people and the risks of cancer.

When it comes to making such a strong decision, it is customary to look at what neighboring countries are doing. Whether to reinforce the approach or, on the contrary, to put it into perspective. Here, the Netherlands is often mentioned as a pioneer and an example to follow. After being the first to legalize, the country says it wants to return to a strict drug policy due to the rise in organized crime related to cannabis.